Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-0.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.000
- 44.6%Success rate43.6%
- +0.132EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.8%Explosive rate6.3%
- 40.1%Third-down rate43.1%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.88Points / drive1.69
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 23/33 | 285 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 26 | 106 | 4.1 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 5 | 6 | 78 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 4 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/37 | 133 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| David Patten | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| David Givens | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.26