2002 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Chad Pennington

30·17

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

-0.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.000
  • 44.6%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.055EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.8%Explosive rate6.3%
  • 40.1%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 52.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.69
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NYJQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:3035Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:52343Touchdown7–6
NEQ1 9:4700Touchdown7–7
NYJQ1 9:33535Punt7–7
NEQ1 6:1834Punt7–7
NYJQ1 5:20589Touchdown14–7
NEQ1 2:55619Punt14–7
NYJQ1 0:1039Punt14–7
NEQ2 14:0336Punt14–7
NYJQ2 12:3437Punt14–7
NEQ2 11:30414Field goal14–10
NYJQ2 9:491150Field goal17–10
NEQ2 4:24721Punt17–10
NYJQ2 1:3539Punt17–10
NEQ2 0:5939Punt17–10
NYJQ2 0:2716End of half17–10
NEQ3 15:001666Touchdown17–17
NYJQ3 6:1939Punt17–17
NYJQ3 4:00514Field goal20–17
NEQ3 1:5032Punt20–17
NYJQ4 14:521064Touchdown27–17
NEQ4 8:45317Turnover27–17
NYJQ4 7:261047Field goal30–17
NEQ4 2:311253Turnover on downs30–17
NYJQ4 0:5700End of half30–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington23/3328530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin261064.10
LaMont Jordan221.00
Chad Pennington300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles56781
Santana Moss45771
Wayne Chrebet47611
Anthony Becht22210
Chris Baker1240
Curtis Martin1130
Kevin Swayne0100
LaMont Jordan0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/3713311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith14463.30
Tom Brady4246.00
Kevin Faulk2136.50
David Patten177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Faulk46380
David Patten58380
Antowain Smith45220
Christian Fauria23121
Troy Brown2780
David Givens1260
Donald Hayes0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.26