Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.021
- 43.4%Success rate47.1%
- -0.085EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.110
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- 39.3%Third-down rate42.2%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.04Points / drive1.81
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/35 | 241 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 6 | 12 | 123 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 23/31 | 231 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 30 | 80 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Joe Burns | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 9 | 11 | 75 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.66