2002 · Week 17
Final
Memorial Stadium (Champaign) · outdoors · astroplay · 38°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
32
Model margin
+0.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.129
- 42.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.019EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.197
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 35.3%Third-down rate33.7%
- 41.7%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.22Points / drive1.35
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.206EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:22 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 8:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 6:56 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 3:55 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 14:33 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q2 12:57 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 10:10 | 11 | 48 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 3:22 | 5 | 55 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 1:00 | 4 | 20 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| CHI | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–0 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 6–0 |
| TB | Q3 12:37 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 6–0 |
| CHI | Q3 9:12 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 6–0 |
| TB | Q3 6:22 | 14 | 70 | Field goal | 9–0 |
| CHI | Q4 13:12 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| TB | Q4 13:05 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 12–0 |
| CHI | Q4 7:01 | 2 | 17 | Turnover | 12–0 |
| TB | Q4 6:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 12–0 |
| CHI | Q4 3:47 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 12–0 |
| TB | Q4 3:34 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 15–0 |
| CHI | Q4 3:09 | 14 | 72 | End of half | 15–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 16/25 | 134 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Burris | 7/19 | 78 | 0 | 4 |
| Cory Sauter | 6/9 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Henry Burris | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cory Sauter | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Johnson | 1 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 4 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Dez White | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.43
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.48