2002 · WC

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

0·41

Jets

New York

QB Chad Pennington

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6

Total

42

Model margin

+3.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJets
  • +0.016EPA / play+0.054
  • 44.3%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback+0.132
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.055
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.8%
  • 44.5%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.88
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.065EPA / play allowed+0.002

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYJ
INDQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:17577Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 10:501248Missed field goal0–7
NYJQ1 4:42851Field goal0–10
INDQ2 14:0800Touchdown0–10
NYJQ2 13:59739Touchdown0–17
INDQ2 9:4133Punt0–17
NYJQ2 8:37832Punt0–17
INDQ2 3:5636Punt0–17
NYJQ2 1:39642Touchdown0–24
INDQ2 0:3743End of half0–24
NYJQ3 15:003-1Field goal0–27
INDQ3 13:28613Punt0–27
NYJQ3 11:0736Punt0–27
INDQ3 9:2637Punt0–27
NYJQ3 8:141174Touchdown0–34
INDQ3 1:44841Turnover0–34
NYJQ4 14:161364Touchdown0–41
INDQ4 4:59451Turnover0–41
NYJQ4 3:16314End of half0–41

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning14/3113702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Mungro4369.00
Edgerrin James9141.60
Peyton Manning122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison48470
James Mungro34310
Troy Walters14170
Reggie Wayne36170
Marcus Pollard15160
Edgerrin James2390

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington19/2522230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaMont Jordan201025.12
Curtis Martin15674.50
Chad Pennington133.00
Chad Morton133.00
Laveranues Coles1-1-1.00
Vinny Testaverde2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wayne Chrebet26440
Santana Moss56421
Laveranues Coles45360
Curtis Martin22120
LaMont Jordan1190
Anthony Becht1180
Chris Baker1131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.72