Closing spread
NYJ -6
Total
42
Model margin
+3.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.054
- 44.3%Success rate44.6%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.055
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.8%
- 44.5%Third-down rate40.1%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.70Points / drive1.88
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/31 | 137 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Mungro | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 19/25 | 222 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMont Jordan | 20 | 102 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Curtis Martin | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Laveranues Coles | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.72