Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.004
- 42.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- 42.9%Third-down rate39.3%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.94Points / drive1.81
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.178
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 22/38 | 274 | 0 | 2 |
| Doug Johnson | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Quentin McCord | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 5 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 4 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Quentin McCord | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Trevor Gaylor | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 20/30 | 247 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 2 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| Todd Pinkston | 5 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.58