2002 · DIV

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

6·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 29°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapEagles
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.004
  • 42.3%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.038EPA / rush-0.043
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 42.9%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.81
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.178

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PHI
ATLQ1 15:00436Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:34525Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:29514Opp touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 7:5800Opp touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 7:583-1Punt0–7
PHIQ1 6:14547Field goal0–10
ATLQ1 3:47629Punt0–10
PHIQ1 0:10970Field goal0–13
ATLQ2 10:051261Field goal3–13
PHIQ2 4:10624Punt3–13
ATLQ2 1:49845Field goal6–13
PHIQ3 15:0038Punt6–13
ATLQ3 13:183-4Punt6–13
PHIQ3 11:308-6Missed field goal6–13
ATLQ3 7:431165Missed field goal6–13
PHIQ3 2:30646Punt6–13
ATLQ4 14:50629Punt6–13
PHIQ4 12:081075Touchdown6–20
ATLQ4 6:26653Turnover on downs6–20
PHIQ4 4:32730Punt6–20
ATLQ4 1:03318Turnover6–20
PHIQ4 0:0900End of half6–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick22/3827402
Doug Johnson1/11400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn14453.20
Mike Vick6305.00
Quentin McCord2136.50
T.J. Duckett252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Finneran59720
Alge Crumpler47660
Warrick Dunn67560
Quentin McCord23310
Trevor Gaylor33280
T.J. Duckett11180
Reggie Kelly23170
Shawn Jefferson0200
Brian Kozlowski0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb20/3024710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley18633.50
Donovan McNabb4246.00
James Thrash242.00
Dorsey Levens100.00
Brian Westbrook100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Thrash23771
Todd Pinkston511480
Duce Staley56390
Chad Lewis23220
Cecil Martin22180
Dorsey Levens11170
Brian Westbrook23170
Antonio Freeman1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.58