Closing spread
OAK -5.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 21/47 | 183 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 16 | 74 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 4 | 11 | 45 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.