Closing spread
OAK -5.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 12–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. OAK are 10-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:58 | 9 | 73 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 4:15 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:17 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 1:25 | 6 | 28 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:44 | 8 | 64 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 9:45 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:08 | 16 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:22 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 59 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:34 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 9:37 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:19 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 4:54 | 2 | 45 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:24 | 8 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 1:18 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:15 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| LV | Q4 12:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:03 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| LV | Q4 11:22 | 6 | 46 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:55 | 4 | -6 | Turnover on downs | 10–27 |
| LV | Q4 7:10 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 10–30 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:42 | 11 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 10–30 |
| LV | Q4 0:50 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 21/47 | 183 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 16 | 74 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 4 | 11 | 45 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.