2002 · DIV
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.043
- 45.2%Success rate42.2%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.019
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.146
- 7.5%Explosive rate6.9%
- 52.5%Third-down rate35.3%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
- 1.83Points / drive1.22
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.046EPA / play allowed-0.206
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/41 | 193 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Streets | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 15/31 | 196 | 2 | 1 |
| Rob Johnson | 1/1 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 12 | 85 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.12