2002 · CON
Final
Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 26°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play+0.004
- 42.2%Success rate43.3%
- +0.019EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.043
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- 35.3%Third-down rate39.3%
- 41.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.22Points / drive1.81
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.206EPA / play allowed-0.178
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 20/33 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 6 | -2 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 3 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 26/49 | 243 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 6 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 6 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.57