2002 · CON

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

27·10

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 26°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

33.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapEagles
  • -0.043EPA / play+0.004
  • 42.2%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.043
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 35.3%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 41.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.81
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.206EPA / play allowed-0.178

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00226Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 14:08837Field goal3–7
PHIQ1 9:5831Punt3–7
TBQ1 8:18312Turnover3–7
PHIQ1 7:14614Punt3–7
TBQ1 3:55796Touchdown10–7
PHIQ1 0:40522Punt10–7
TBQ2 13:3131Punt10–7
PHIQ2 11:57821Field goal10–10
TBQ2 8:041280Touchdown17–10
PHIQ2 2:28735Turnover17–10
TBQ2 0:3200End of half17–10
TBQ3 15:0034Punt17–10
PHIQ3 13:40510Turnover17–10
TBQ3 11:3635Punt17–10
PHIQ3 10:0835Punt17–10
TBQ3 8:4934Punt17–10
PHIQ3 7:18616Punt17–10
TBQ3 4:37743Field goal20–10
PHIQ3 1:023-1Punt20–10
TBQ3 0:0000Punt20–10
TBQ4 15:00514Punt20–10
PHIQ4 12:51619Punt20–10
TBQ4 10:52617Punt20–10
PHIQ4 6:31972Opp touchdown27–10
TBQ4 3:1200Opp touchdown27–10
PHIQ4 3:12630Turnover on downs27–10
TBQ4 1:5200Punt27–10
PHIQ4 1:34642End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson20/3325911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman8172.10
Aaron Stecker199.00
Brad Johnson6-2-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Jurevicius15710
Michael Pittman55530
Ken Dilger33410
Keyshawn Johnson38401
Keenan McCardell57370
Rickey Dudley1170
Karl Williams1170
Aaron Stecker1130

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb26/4924301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley13584.51
Donovan McNabb3175.70
Brian Westbrook252.50
Dorsey Levens300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman59660
Chad Lewis68650
Todd Pinkston37510
Duce Staley610260
James Thrash45230
Brian Westbrook1580
Cecil Martin1140
Dorsey Levens0300
Freddie Mitchell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.57