Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.117
- 40.7%Success rate39.7%
- +0.048EPA / dropback-0.140
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- 37.4%Third-down rate31.3%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.42Points / drive1.19
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.159EPA / play allowed-0.087
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 14/29 | 123 | 0 | 4 |
| Rohan Davey | 3/6 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 17/28 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 28 | 86 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.33