2003 · Week 1

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

17·0

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

36

Model margin

+4.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapEagles
  • -0.043EPA / play+0.047
  • 41.6%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.064
  • -0.134EPA / rush+0.019
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.99
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.031

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson27/3623821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman8354.40
Thomas Jones10303.00
Aaron Stecker122.00

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb19/3614801
Koy Detmer0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb55511.00
James Thrash14747.00
Duce Staley7142.00
Brian Westbrook252.50
Correll Buckhalter100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.96