2003 · Week 1
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
36
Model margin
+4.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play+0.047
- 41.6%Success rate43.4%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.019
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- 35.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.38Points / drive1.99
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 13:49 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 12:42 | 8 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:19 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 9:19 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 7:31 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 4:25 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 1:35 | 8 | 36 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 11:51 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 9:51 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 4:59 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 2:36 | 6 | 43 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 0:45 | 5 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q3 13:07 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q3 10:42 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| PHI | Q3 3:22 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 10–0 |
| TB | Q3 1:08 | 14 | 73 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| PHI | Q4 7:32 | 4 | 36 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| TB | Q4 6:14 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 17–0 |
| PHI | Q4 3:04 | 10 | 74 | Turnover | 17–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 27/36 | 238 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/36 | 148 | 0 | 1 |
| Koy Detmer | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 55 | 11.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 47 | 47.0 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.96