2003 · Week 2 · Division
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -9
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.043
- 39.3%Success rate41.6%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.3%
- 35.8%Third-down rate35.7%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.35Points / drive1.38
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 9/23 | 96 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 33 | 142 | 4.3 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 34/61 | 339 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.97