2003 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Kelly Holcomb

13·33

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 73°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

39

Model margin

+6.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.100EPA / play-0.093
  • 43.0%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.112
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.074
  • 6.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 37.1%Third-down rate31.7%
  • 47.9%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.53
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%
  • -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.194

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
BALQ1 15:00283Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 14:01415Punt0–7
BALQ1 11:05839Missed field goal0–7
CLEQ1 6:28211Turnover0–7
BALQ1 5:37845Field goal0–10
CLEQ1 1:5738Punt0–10
BALQ1 0:12617Punt0–10
CLEQ2 12:59619Punt0–10
BALQ2 8:58310Turnover0–10
CLEQ2 7:2533Field goal3–10
BALQ2 6:32449Field goal3–13
CLEQ2 5:2337Punt3–13
BALQ2 3:41613Field goal3–16
CLEQ2 1:0630Punt3–16
BALQ2 0:2800End of half3–16
CLEQ3 15:00415Punt3–16
BALQ3 12:483-3Punt3–16
CLEQ3 11:1530Punt3–16
BALQ3 10:3545Turnover3–16
CLEQ3 8:54747Field goal6–16
BALQ3 4:543-4Punt6–16
CLEQ3 3:0010Turnover6–16
BALQ3 2:501-7Turnover6–16
CLEQ3 2:45522Touchdown13–16
BALQ3 0:36269Touchdown13–23
CLEQ4 14:49714Punt13–23
BALQ4 10:44627Punt13–23
CLEQ4 6:4155Turnover on downs13–23
BALQ4 5:25751Field goal13–26
CLEQ4 1:5879Opp touchdown13–33

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kelly Holcomb17/3714712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Green17543.20
Kelly Holcomb263.00
Jamel White100.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller7/177801
Chris Redman0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis302959.82
Alan Ricard23618.00
Chester Taylor581.60
Kyle Boller331.00
Travis Taylor111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.26