Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
+6.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play-0.093
- 43.0%Success rate38.5%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.074
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- 37.1%Third-down rate31.7%
- 47.9%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.31Points / drive1.53
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 17/37 | 147 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 7/17 | 78 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Redman | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 30 | 295 | 9.8 | 2 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 36 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.26