Closing spread
GB -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.065
- 36.7%Success rate45.9%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.178EPA / rush+0.001
- 5.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- 34.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.04Points / drive2.11
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 14:08 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 13:08 | 14 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DET | Q1 4:26 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–14 |
| GB | Q1 2:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| DET | Q1 0:53 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| DET | Q2 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| GB | Q2 12:20 | 9 | 23 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| DET | Q2 8:22 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–17 |
| GB | Q2 6:08 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–17 |
| DET | Q2 4:35 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 3–17 |
| GB | Q2 3:31 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–17 |
| DET | Q2 1:41 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 3–17 |
| GB | Q2 0:58 | 2 | 19 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| DET | Q2 0:33 | 5 | 31 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 6–17 |
| GB | Q3 14:03 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–17 |
| DET | Q3 12:37 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 6–17 |
| GB | Q3 11:07 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| DET | Q3 10:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–24 |
| GB | Q3 8:08 | 4 | 32 | Punt | 6–24 |
| DET | Q3 5:42 | 8 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 6–24 |
| GB | Q3 2:17 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–24 |
| DET | Q3 1:22 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 6–24 |
| GB | Q4 13:54 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 6–24 |
| DET | Q4 11:39 | 5 | 30 | Opp touchdown | 6–31 |
| DET | Q4 10:18 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 6–31 |
| GB | Q4 7:50 | 10 | 44 | Punt | 6–31 |
| DET | Q4 1:49 | 11 | 75 | End of half | 6–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 26/55 | 241 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Charles Rogers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/28 | 132 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 23 | 160 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.76