Closing spread
GB -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.065
- 36.7%Success rate45.9%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.178EPA / rush+0.001
- 5.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- 34.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.04Points / drive2.11
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 26/55 | 241 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Charles Rogers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/28 | 132 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 23 | 160 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.76