2003 · Week 3 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -6.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.116
- 41.6%Success rate39.2%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.213
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.020
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- 35.7%Third-down rate29.8%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.38Points / drive1.36
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 26–25 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:12 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:57 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 6:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 4:06 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 2:33 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 14:47 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q2 12:56 | 4 | 8 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 10:32 | 4 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| ATL | Q2 9:02 | 6 | 30 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| TB | Q2 6:37 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| ATL | Q2 4:59 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| TB | Q2 4:51 | 8 | 37 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| ATL | Q2 1:55 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| TB | Q2 0:48 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–3 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 17–3 |
| TB | Q3 13:04 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| ATL | Q3 11:34 | 3 | 2 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| TB | Q3 10:13 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| ATL | Q3 4:20 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| TB | Q3 4:12 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 31–10 |
| ATL | Q3 1:39 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 31–10 |
| TB | Q4 14:52 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 31–10 |
| ATL | Q4 12:19 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 31–10 |
| TB | Q4 9:52 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 31–10 |
| ATL | Q4 6:10 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 31–10 |
| TB | Q4 4:11 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 31–10 |
| ATL | Q4 2:00 | 3 | 0 | End of half | 31–10 |
| ATL | Q4 1:37 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 31–10 |
| ATL | Q4 1:10 | 6 | 23 | End of half | 31–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 16/24 | 192 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 13/19 | 95 | 0 | 3 |
| Kurt Kittner | 5/12 | 32 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 7 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Woody Dantzler | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.65