2003 · Week 3 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -6.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.116
- 41.6%Success rate39.2%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.213
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.020
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- 35.7%Third-down rate29.8%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.38Points / drive1.36
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 16/24 | 192 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 13/19 | 95 | 0 | 3 |
| Kurt Kittner | 5/12 | 32 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 7 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Woody Dantzler | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.65