Closing spread
CAR -6
Total
35.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.070
- 39.2%Success rate39.3%
- -0.213EPA / dropback-0.010
- +0.020EPA / rush-0.132
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- 29.8%Third-down rate35.8%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.36Points / drive1.35
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.030EPA / play allowed-0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:11 | 7 | 56 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 8:43 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 3:17 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 14:23 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 11:38 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 9:48 | 10 | 41 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q2 4:26 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CAR | Q2 1:43 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| ATL | Q2 0:21 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 47 | Punt | 0–17 |
| ATL | Q3 9:13 | 8 | 43 | Missed field goal | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q3 3:43 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| ATL | Q4 14:57 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| CAR | Q4 13:33 | 4 | 28 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| ATL | Q4 12:24 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–20 |
| CAR | Q4 10:48 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–20 |
| ATL | Q4 7:01 | 6 | 75 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| CAR | Q4 3:46 | 4 | 27 | Field goal | 3–23 |
| ATL | Q4 3:07 | 5 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 3–23 |
| CAR | Q4 1:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 14/23 | 152 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 14 | 100 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Woody Dantzler | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/27 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 21 | 153 | 7.3 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.55