Closing spread
SF -7.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.026
- 36.7%Success rate43.9%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.178EPA / rush-0.099
- 5.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- 34.9%Third-down rate41.6%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.04Points / drive1.83
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 19/35 | 200 | 1 | 2 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 1/1 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/27 | 192 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 19 | 74 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.89