2003 · Week 7
Final
3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play+0.026
- 41.6%Success rate43.9%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.099
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- 35.7%Third-down rate41.6%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.38Points / drive1.83
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 14:10 | 5 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 11:38 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 7:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 6:22 | 3 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q1 4:44 | 8 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TB | Q2 14:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SF | Q2 12:58 | 6 | 67 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| TB | Q2 9:40 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SF | Q2 7:37 | 2 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| TB | Q2 7:20 | 9 | 53 | Punt | 7–21 |
| SF | Q2 2:55 | 6 | 1 | Punt | 7–21 |
| TB | Q2 1:36 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–21 |
| SF | Q2 0:38 | 4 | 31 | Missed field goal | 7–21 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–21 |
| TB | Q3 13:18 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| SF | Q3 11:53 | 6 | 18 | Missed field goal | 7–21 |
| TB | Q3 8:52 | 6 | 50 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| SF | Q3 5:18 | 6 | 30 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| TB | Q3 3:20 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–21 |
| SF | Q3 1:53 | 11 | 59 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| TB | Q4 11:54 | 5 | 38 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| SF | Q4 9:24 | 11 | 38 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| TB | Q4 2:05 | 10 | 54 | End of half | 7–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 21/34 | 241 | 1 | 3 |
| Shaun King | 4/7 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/29 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 20 | 117 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.37