2003 · Week 8

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

3·9

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+7.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.100EPA / play-0.043
  • 43.0%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.048
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.161
  • 6.8%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 37.1%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 47.9%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.42
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.159

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CLE @ NE13–32NE
2022 · W6NE @ CLE38–15NE
2021 · W10CLE @ NE7–45NE
2019 · W8CLE @ NE13–27NE
2016 · W5NE @ CLE33–13NE
2013 · W14CLE @ NE26–27NE
2010 · W9NE @ CLE14–34CLE
2007 · W5CLE @ NE17–34NE

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kelly Holcomb15/2511501
Tim Couch7/114000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Jackson15714.70
Jamel White242.00
Quincy Morgan122.00

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3325900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk23964.20
Antowain Smith393.00
Troy Brown133.00
Tom Brady2-2-1.00
Bethel Johnson1-12-12.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.9%5.7%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.76