Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+9.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.093
- 44.6%Success rate38.5%
- +0.043EPA / dropback-0.112
- +0.047EPA / rush-0.074
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- 39.9%Third-down rate31.7%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.96Points / drive1.53
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.073EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:28 | 5 | 20 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:19 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 5:31 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 3:57 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 1:07 | 11 | 51 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q2 10:40 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 9:42 | 6 | 9 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| DEN | Q2 7:41 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q2 6:06 | 13 | 55 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–9 |
| DEN | Q3 12:58 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 6–9 |
| BAL | Q3 7:10 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 6–9 |
| DEN | Q3 3:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–9 |
| BAL | Q3 1:22 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 6–9 |
| DEN | Q4 13:15 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 6–9 |
| BAL | Q4 9:40 | 4 | 20 | Touchdown | 6–16 |
| DEN | Q4 7:35 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 6–16 |
| BAL | Q4 6:09 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–16 |
| DEN | Q4 5:06 | 4 | -5 | Turnover on downs | 6–16 |
| BAL | Q4 4:03 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 6–19 |
| DEN | Q4 3:00 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 6–25 |
| BAL | Q4 2:03 | 1 | 28 | Touchdown | 6–26 |
| DEN | Q4 1:56 | 5 | 28 | End of half | 6–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kanell | 16/31 | 114 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Danny Kanell | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 15/27 | 137 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 32 | 134 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
6.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.12