Closing spread
IND -13
Total
44
Model margin
+6.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play+0.100
- 38.7%Success rate46.3%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.060
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- 30.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.15Points / drive2.34
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:56 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 8:41 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 7:12 | 9 | 71 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| HOU | Q1 0:44 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–3 |
| HOU | Q2 11:51 | 2 | 28 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| IND | Q2 11:14 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| HOU | Q2 9:34 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| IND | Q2 4:55 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| HOU | Q2 1:54 | 2 | -5 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| IND | Q2 0:57 | 5 | 7 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| HOU | Q2 0:15 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–17 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| HOU | Q3 14:03 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 14–24 |
| IND | Q3 10:15 | 11 | 81 | Field goal | 14–27 |
| HOU | Q3 4:34 | 13 | 58 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| IND | Q4 12:31 | 12 | 67 | Field goal | 21–30 |
| HOU | Q4 5:16 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–30 |
| IND | Q4 3:37 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 21–30 |
| HOU | Q4 1:08 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 21–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 12/17 | 88 | 0 | 1 |
| David Carr | 8/9 | 62 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 25 | 109 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/30 | 269 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 23 | 104 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.20