Closing spread
IND -13
Total
44
Model margin
+6.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play+0.100
- 38.7%Success rate46.3%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.060
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- 30.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.15Points / drive2.34
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 12/17 | 88 | 0 | 1 |
| David Carr | 8/9 | 62 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 25 | 109 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/30 | 269 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 23 | 104 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.20