2003 · Week 9

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

30·26

Broncos

Denver

QB Danny Kanell

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DEN -2

Total

36

Model margin

-4.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.043EPA / play+0.045
  • 40.7%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.161EPA / rush+0.047
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 47.0%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.96
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.159EPA / play allowed-0.073

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3535031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith17553.20
Kevin Faulk5204.00
Tom Brady2-1-0.50
Troy Brown1-5-5.00

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Danny Kanell16/3516311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis261114.31
Quentin Griffin331.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.07