Closing spread
DEN -2
Total
36
Model margin
-4.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play+0.045
- 40.7%Success rate44.6%
- +0.048EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.161EPA / rush+0.047
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- 37.4%Third-down rate39.9%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.42Points / drive1.96
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.159EPA / play allowed-0.073
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:24 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:46 | 4 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 10:51 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 9:47 | 6 | 34 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| NE | Q1 6:04 | 1 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 5:55 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 2:34 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 1:04 | 4 | 29 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 13:07 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 11:29 | 6 | 63 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| DEN | Q2 7:57 | 18 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NE | Q2 0:24 | 1 | 8 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| DEN | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–17 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 47 | Punt | 13–17 |
| DEN | Q3 11:33 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–17 |
| NE | Q3 9:43 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| DEN | Q3 5:57 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–17 |
| NE | Q3 4:53 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 20–24 |
| NE | Q3 3:13 | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 23–24 |
| DEN | Q4 11:08 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 23–24 |
| NE | Q4 7:47 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 23–24 |
| DEN | Q4 6:13 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 23–24 |
| NE | Q4 3:06 | 4 | 0 | Safety | 23–26 |
| DEN | Q4 2:49 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 23–26 |
| NE | Q4 2:15 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 30–26 |
| DEN | Q4 0:30 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 30–26 |
| NE | Q4 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/35 | 350 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kanell | 16/35 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 26 | 111 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Quentin Griffin | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.07