Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
39.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.116
- 43.4%Success rate39.2%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.213
- +0.019EPA / rush+0.020
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- 36.1%Third-down rate29.8%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.99Points / drive1.36
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 14:52 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:26 | 9 | 41 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q1 10:02 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q1 5:03 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| PHI | Q2 12:52 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 10:59 | 14 | 33 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| PHI | Q2 3:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q2 1:42 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| PHI | Q2 0:38 | 4 | 34 | End of half | 10–13 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 70 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| ATL | Q3 10:33 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 13–13 |
| PHI | Q3 6:33 | 10 | 60 | Missed field goal | 13–13 |
| ATL | Q3 2:07 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–13 |
| PHI | Q3 0:54 | 4 | 73 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| ATL | Q4 14:09 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 20–13 |
| PHI | Q4 12:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–13 |
| ATL | Q4 11:50 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 20–13 |
| PHI | Q4 10:37 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| ATL | Q4 7:46 | 4 | 52 | Field goal | 23–16 |
| PHI | Q4 5:18 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 23–16 |
| ATL | Q4 3:28 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 23–16 |
| PHI | Q4 2:32 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 23–16 |
| ATL | Q4 0:14 | 1 | 14 | End of half | 23–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/33 | 312 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 23 | 92 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 5/10 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| Kurt Kittner | 11/18 | 78 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 68 | 6.8 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Kurt Kittner | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.97
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.16