Closing spread
GB -4.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.065
- 43.4%Success rate45.9%
- +0.064EPA / dropback+0.126
- +0.019EPA / rush+0.001
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- 36.1%Third-down rate41.0%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.99Points / drive2.11
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/31 | 198 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/22 | 109 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 29 | 192 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.84