2003 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.070
- 41.6%Success rate39.3%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.132
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- 35.7%Third-down rate35.8%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.38Points / drive1.35
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–24 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:19 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:58 | 3 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 11:05 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 7:06 | 11 | 49 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| TB | Q1 1:55 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q1 0:58 | 8 | 47 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 12:10 | 11 | 55 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q2 6:45 | 2 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 6:05 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TB | Q2 3:43 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 1:36 | 8 | 30 | End of half | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 37 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| TB | Q3 8:30 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–13 |
| CAR | Q3 6:17 | 4 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| TB | Q3 3:58 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q4 14:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–20 |
| TB | Q4 12:34 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| CAR | Q4 10:19 | 3 | -14 | Punt | 14–20 |
| TB | Q4 8:32 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| CAR | Q4 4:44 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 21–20 |
| TB | Q4 4:23 | 4 | 4 | Field goal | 24–20 |
| CAR | Q4 2:41 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| TB | Q4 1:06 | 6 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 24–27 |
| CAR | Q4 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 24/43 | 275 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/32 | 277 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 22 | 56 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
6.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08