2003 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

24·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.070
  • 41.6%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.132
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.2%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.35
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.075

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–23 since 1999

Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB
2022 · W7TB @ CAR3–21CAR

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson24/4327521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman12504.20
Brad Johnson2147.00
Aaron Stecker2136.50
Thomas Jones3124.00

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme20/3227722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShaun Foster22562.50
Steve Smith11414.00
Jake Delhomme551.00
Nick Goings122.00
Rod Smart111.00
Muhsin Muhammad100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

6.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.08