2003 · Week 11
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play-0.043
- 45.9%Success rate41.6%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.014
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.3%
- 41.0%Third-down rate35.7%
- 74.0%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 2.11Points / drive1.38
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.077EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 13/28 | 92 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 109 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 17/28 | 149 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 9 | 134 | 14.9 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.96