Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.117
- 38.7%Success rate39.7%
- -0.096EPA / dropback-0.140
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- 30.8%Third-down rate31.3%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.15Points / drive1.19
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.087
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 11/16 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
| David Carr | 2/4 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 26 | 68 | 2.6 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | -34 | -34.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/26 | 184 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 23 | 149 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.87