2003 · Week 11

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

12·10

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 47°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BUF -7

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBills
  • -0.099EPA / play-0.117
  • 38.7%Success rate39.7%
  • -0.096EPA / dropback-0.140
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.085
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 30.8%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 65.8%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.15Points / drive1.19
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.2%
  • +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.087

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BUF @ HOU36–31BUF
2025 · W12BUF @ HOU19–23HOU
2024 · W5BUF @ HOU20–23HOU
2021 · W4HOU @ BUF0–40BUF
2019 · playoffsBUF @ HOU19–22HOU
2018 · W6BUF @ HOU13–20HOU
2015 · W13HOU @ BUF21–30BUF
2014 · W4BUF @ HOU17–23HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:3537Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:13626Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:53312Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:44427Punt0–0
HOUQ1 5:332-2Safety0–2
BUFQ1 4:48951Missed field goal0–2
HOUQ2 14:53615Punt0–2
BUFQ2 11:38532Missed field goal0–2
HOUQ2 9:29419Punt0–2
BUFQ2 6:30889Field goal0–5
HOUQ2 2:07478Touchdown6–5
BUFQ2 1:1233Punt6–5
HOUQ2 0:041-1End of half6–5
HOUQ3 15:001037Field goal9–5
BUFQ3 10:423-3Punt9–5
HOUQ3 8:4510Turnover9–5
BUFQ3 8:38618Field goal9–8
HOUQ3 4:38936Punt9–8
BUFQ4 13:411064Punt9–8
HOUQ4 8:45867Field goal12–8
BUFQ4 3:23525Turnover12–8
HOUQ4 1:515-23Safety12–10

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks11/1620711
David Carr2/41200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Domanick Williams26682.60
David Carr100.00
Andre Johnson1-34-34.00

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe15/2618400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry231496.50
Josh Reed11616.00
Sammy Morris2105.00
Joe Burns155.00
Drew Bledsoe122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.87