Closing spread
IND -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.117
- 46.3%Success rate39.7%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.140
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- 42.2%Third-down rate31.3%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 2.34Points / drive1.19
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.087
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:45 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 8:52 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 5:51 | 12 | 67 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q2 14:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 13:08 | 11 | 44 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q2 8:42 | 13 | 51 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 2:07 | 7 | 64 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q2 0:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q3 13:20 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q3 11:43 | 7 | 16 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| IND | Q3 8:22 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q3 7:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q3 5:17 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q3 3:26 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| IND | Q4 14:51 | 9 | 45 | Touchdown | 9–14 |
| BUF | Q4 10:40 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 9–14 |
| IND | Q4 7:38 | 17 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q4 1:38 | 4 | 26 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| IND | Q4 0:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/42 | 229 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 28 | 108 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/28 | 135 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 22 | 77 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.80