2003 · Week 12

Final / OT

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

23·20

Texans

Houston

QB Tony Banks

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

NE -5

Total

37

Model margin

+0.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapTexans
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.099
  • 40.7%Success rate38.7%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback-0.096
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.102
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 47.0%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.15
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.159EPA / play allowed+0.041

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:463-1Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:171256Field goal0–3
NEQ1 2:361067Touchdown7–3
HOUQ2 13:123-1Punt7–3
NEQ2 11:33638Turnover7–3
NEQ2 7:5739Field goal10–3
HOUQ2 5:5536Punt10–3
NEQ2 4:40727Punt10–3
HOUQ2 1:4435Punt10–3
NEQ2 0:58537Missed field goal10–3
HOUQ2 0:0100End of half10–3
NEQ3 15:001142Turnover on downs10–3
HOUQ3 8:41515Punt10–3
NEQ3 6:26625Turnover10–3
HOUQ3 4:33211Touchdown10–10
NEQ3 4:01856Field goal13–10
HOUQ4 14:573-2Punt13–10
NEQ4 13:10722Turnover13–10
HOUQ4 8:59536Touchdown13–17
NEQ4 6:4935Punt13–17
HOUQ4 4:5038Field goal13–20
NEQ4 3:11980Touchdown20–20
HOUQ4 0:4028End of half20–20
HOUOT10Turnover20–20
NEOT34Missed field goal20–20
HOUOT933Punt20–20
NEOT3-5Punt20–20
HOUOT3-5Punt20–20
NEOT1066Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/4736822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk23803.50
Patrick Pass2157.50
Tom Brady6152.50
Antowain Smith8101.30
Mike Cloud284.00

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks10/259321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Domanick Williams24692.90
Jabar Gaffney11313.00
Tony Banks252.50
Andre Johnson231.50
Tony Hollings1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.49