Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.065
- 43.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.099EPA / rush+0.001
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- 41.6%Third-down rate41.0%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.83Points / drive2.11
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 14/30 | 142 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 10/15 | 138 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 27 | 154 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.61
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.90