Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
-1.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play-0.156
- 45.9%Success rate36.7%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.144
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.178
- 10.4%Explosive rate5.6%
- 41.0%Third-down rate34.9%
- 74.0%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 2.11Points / drive1.04
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.077EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 12:51 | 10 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 8:05 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 4:41 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| GB | Q1 0:33 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 10:27 | 13 | 50 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| GB | Q2 2:37 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DET | Q2 1:44 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–13 |
| GB | Q2 0:50 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DET | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–13 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 7–13 |
| GB | Q3 11:22 | 8 | 49 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| DET | Q3 7:36 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–13 |
| GB | Q3 5:10 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| DET | Q3 3:48 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–13 |
| GB | Q3 2:40 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–13 |
| DET | Q3 1:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–13 |
| GB | Q3 0:20 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| DET | Q4 14:53 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| GB | Q4 13:09 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 14–16 |
| DET | Q4 11:05 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–16 |
| GB | Q4 10:58 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 14–16 |
| DET | Q4 10:50 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 14–19 |
| GB | Q4 9:17 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 14–19 |
| DET | Q4 8:13 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 14–22 |
| GB | Q4 3:34 | 6 | 26 | Turnover | 14–22 |
| DET | Q4 1:03 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–22 |
| GB | Q4 0:29 | 3 | 30 | End of half | 14–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/37 | 296 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 21/32 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.63