Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
-1.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play-0.156
- 45.9%Success rate36.7%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.144
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.178
- 10.4%Explosive rate5.6%
- 41.0%Third-down rate34.9%
- 74.0%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 2.11Points / drive1.04
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.077EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/37 | 296 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 21/32 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.63