Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play+0.100
- 40.7%Success rate46.3%
- +0.048EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.060
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- 37.4%Third-down rate42.2%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.42Points / drive2.34
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.159EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 50 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:04 | 8 | 28 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:04 | 6 | 36 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| IND | Q1 2:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NE | Q1 0:57 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| IND | Q2 11:54 | 10 | 43 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| NE | Q2 7:04 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 17–3 |
| IND | Q2 3:32 | 12 | 81 | Touchdown | 23–10 |
| NE | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 24–10 |
| NE | Q3 13:09 | 12 | 50 | Touchdown | 31–10 |
| IND | Q3 7:36 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 31–10 |
| NE | Q3 6:12 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 31–10 |
| IND | Q3 5:24 | 9 | 46 | Touchdown | 31–17 |
| NE | Q3 1:20 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 31–23 |
| IND | Q3 0:20 | 1 | 26 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| NE | Q3 0:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 31–24 |
| IND | Q4 14:08 | 10 | 52 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| NE | Q4 10:21 | 4 | 31 | Touchdown | 38–31 |
| IND | Q4 8:36 | 9 | 22 | Punt | 38–31 |
| NE | Q4 4:36 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 38–31 |
| IND | Q4 3:45 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 38–34 |
| NE | Q4 3:27 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 38–34 |
| IND | Q4 2:57 | 10 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 38–34 |
| NE | Q4 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/35 | 236 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 29/48 | 278 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 25 | 88 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.44