2003 · Week 13

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

38·34

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapColts
  • -0.043EPA / play+0.100
  • 40.7%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.060
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 47.0%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.42Points / drive2.34
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
  • -0.159EPA / play allowed+0.000

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/3523622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk15422.80
Patrick Pass294.50
Mike Cloud461.52
Tom Brady2-1-0.50

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning29/4827841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James25883.50
Dominic Rhodes294.50
Peyton Manning210.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.44