Closing spread
CAR -1.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.070
- 43.4%Success rate39.3%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.010
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.132
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- 36.1%Third-down rate35.8%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.99Points / drive1.35
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed-0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. CAR are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/26 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 18/29 | 216 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 23 | 115 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.68