Closing spread
CAR -1.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.070
- 43.4%Success rate39.3%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.010
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.132
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- 36.1%Third-down rate35.8%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.99Points / drive1.35
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed-0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. CAR are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 14:48 | 8 | 34 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q1 9:34 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q1 4:05 | 6 | 41 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q1 0:41 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q2 13:46 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q2 10:21 | 3 | 2 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q2 8:54 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q2 3:10 | 9 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| PHI | Q2 0:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 51 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| PHI | Q3 10:08 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| CAR | Q3 7:16 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| PHI | Q3 2:45 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| CAR | Q4 12:55 | 1 | -13 | Turnover | 16–10 |
| PHI | Q4 12:40 | 2 | 11 | Touchdown | 22–10 |
| CAR | Q4 11:56 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 22–10 |
| PHI | Q4 10:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 22–10 |
| CAR | Q4 8:36 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 22–16 |
| PHI | Q4 6:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 22–16 |
| CAR | Q4 6:07 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 22–16 |
| PHI | Q4 5:41 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 25–16 |
| CAR | Q4 0:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 25–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/26 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 18/29 | 216 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 23 | 115 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.68