Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
41
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.116
- 39.3%Success rate39.2%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.213
- -0.132EPA / rush+0.020
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 35.8%Third-down rate29.8%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.35Points / drive1.36
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 13/25 | 153 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/33 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 14 | 141 | 10.1 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Justin Griffith | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.71