Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
41
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.116
- 39.3%Success rate39.2%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.213
- -0.132EPA / rush+0.020
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 35.8%Third-down rate29.8%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.35Points / drive1.36
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 14:48 | 6 | 10 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 12:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:04 | 10 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 5:42 | 9 | 56 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 1:58 | 13 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 11:56 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 10:47 | 8 | 39 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 7:12 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q2 3:18 | 7 | 52 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q2 0:51 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q3 11:44 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q3 8:00 | 1 | 2 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q3 7:49 | 8 | 20 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q3 4:32 | 4 | 34 | Punt | 14–7 |
| CAR | Q3 2:07 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q4 14:49 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–7 |
| CAR | Q4 14:01 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q4 12:06 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| CAR | Q4 8:17 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ATL | Q4 6:05 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 14–14 |
| CAR | Q4 3:48 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ATL | Q4 1:46 | 10 | 40 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| CAR | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–14 |
| CAR | OT | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 14–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 13/25 | 153 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/33 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 14 | 141 | 10.1 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Justin Griffith | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.71