Closing spread
DEN -11.5
Total
42
Model margin
+6.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.045
- 43.0%Success rate44.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.144EPA / rush+0.047
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- 37.1%Third-down rate39.9%
- 47.9%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.31Points / drive1.96
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.073
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 8/18 | 181 | 2 | 1 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frisman Jackson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 20 | 55 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 22/36 | 269 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 38 | 139 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.43
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.43