2003 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
TB -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.043
- 39.2%Success rate41.6%
- -0.213EPA / dropback+0.014
- +0.020EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- 29.8%Third-down rate35.7%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.36Points / drive1.38
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.030EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 26–25 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:36 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 7:36 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:32 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 1:33 | 2 | 6 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| TB | Q1 0:44 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q2 12:03 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–0 |
| TB | Q2 11:00 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 6:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–7 |
| TB | Q2 5:07 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 3:53 | 4 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| TB | Q2 1:53 | 4 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 24–7 |
| TB | Q2 1:01 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 24–7 |
| ATL | Q2 0:33 | 3 | 31 | Field goal | 27–7 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 27–7 |
| ATL | Q3 9:55 | 11 | 44 | Field goal | 30–7 |
| TB | Q3 3:40 | 16 | 80 | Touchdown | 30–14 |
| ATL | Q4 11:27 | 11 | 40 | Turnover | 30–14 |
| TB | Q4 3:45 | 4 | 96 | Touchdown | 30–22 |
| ATL | Q4 2:20 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 30–22 |
| TB | Q4 2:18 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 30–28 |
| ATL | Q4 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 8/15 | 119 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 27 | 93 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 34/48 | 346 | 4 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.91