2003 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

30·28

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

TB -6.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.116EPA / play-0.043
  • 39.2%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.213EPA / dropback+0.014
  • +0.020EPA / rush-0.134
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.3%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.38
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.030EPA / play allowed-0.116

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick8/1511920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Duckett27933.40
Mike Vick12393.30
Justin Griffith3165.30

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson34/4834644

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones17734.30
Michael Pittman4205.00
Brad Johnson111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.91