Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
-4.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.100
- 38.5%Success rate43.0%
- -0.112EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.074EPA / rush-0.144
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- 31.7%Third-down rate37.1%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate47.9%
- 1.53Points / drive1.31
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 10/18 | 90 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 22 | 205 | 9.3 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Anthony Wright | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 17/33 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.84
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.97