Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.100
- 44.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.047EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- 39.9%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.96Points / drive2.34
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.073EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 12:59 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q1 9:55 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 7:50 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| IND | Q1 2:06 | 6 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| DEN | Q2 14:10 | 12 | 91 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| IND | Q2 6:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–14 |
| DEN | Q2 5:09 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| IND | Q2 1:11 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 28–17 |
| DEN | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–17 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 26 | Punt | 28–17 |
| DEN | Q3 10:58 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 28–17 |
| IND | Q3 9:03 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 28–17 |
| DEN | Q3 7:29 | 11 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 28–17 |
| IND | Q3 0:10 | 4 | 64 | Punt | 28–17 |
| DEN | Q4 14:00 | 15 | 77 | Field goal | 31–17 |
| IND | Q4 4:26 | 4 | -1 | Turnover on downs | 31–17 |
| DEN | Q4 3:29 | 6 | 24 | End of half | 31–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 14/17 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Griffin | 28 | 136 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 12/23 | 146 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.85