2003 · Week 16

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

14·20

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -7.5

Total

37

Model margin

+5.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.156EPA / play-0.070
  • 36.7%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.144EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.178EPA / rush-0.132
  • 5.6%Explosive rate10.2%
  • 34.9%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.04Points / drive1.35
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.075

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 8–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. CAR are 6-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET
2008 · W11DET @ CAR22–31CAR

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike McMahon4/113601
Joey Harrington3/81700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Artose Pinner12221.80
Shawn Bryson6172.80
Mike McMahon2147.00

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme29/3526021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShaun Foster21763.60
Rod Smart9242.70
Jake Delhomme3113.70
Nick Goings11111.00
Steve Smith1-3-3.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.59