Closing spread
CAR -7.5
Total
37
Model margin
+5.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play-0.070
- 36.7%Success rate39.3%
- -0.144EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.178EPA / rush-0.132
- 5.6%Explosive rate10.2%
- 34.9%Third-down rate35.8%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.04Points / drive1.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CAR are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:04 | 5 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 10:30 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 9:29 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 7:16 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 5:13 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 3:43 | 11 | 31 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 13:26 | 9 | 89 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DET | Q2 8:03 | 9 | 42 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| CAR | Q2 4:04 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| DET | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q2 0:43 | 4 | 30 | End of half | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 51 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| DET | Q3 7:53 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 0–20 |
| CAR | Q3 5:00 | 8 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 0–20 |
| DET | Q3 0:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–20 |
| CAR | Q4 13:40 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q4 12:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–20 |
| DET | Q4 10:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q4 8:59 | 9 | 40 | Opp touchdown | 14–20 |
| CAR | Q4 3:44 | 10 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 14–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 4/11 | 36 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 3/8 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 29/35 | 260 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 21 | 76 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.59