Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
44
Model margin
+4.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.047
- 43.9%Success rate43.4%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.099EPA / rush+0.019
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- 41.6%Third-down rate36.1%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.83Points / drive1.99
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 14:39 | 9 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 10:01 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:13 | 6 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 5:24 | 11 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q2 14:48 | 1 | -10 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 14:40 | 2 | 20 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q2 14:07 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 11:40 | 3 | 67 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| SF | Q2 10:24 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 8:55 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SF | Q2 8:08 | 3 | 16 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q2 6:17 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SF | Q2 4:28 | 6 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| PHI | Q2 1:58 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 14–14 |
| SF | Q2 0:19 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 14–14 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 14–21 |
| SF | Q3 12:41 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 17–21 |
| PHI | Q3 6:56 | 4 | 49 | Missed field goal | 17–21 |
| SF | Q3 4:51 | 9 | 61 | Field goal | 20–21 |
| PHI | Q4 14:56 | 8 | 36 | Missed field goal | 20–21 |
| SF | Q4 10:28 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| PHI | Q4 5:03 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| SF | Q4 1:02 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 28–28 |
| PHI | OT | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 28–28 |
| SF | OT | 1 | 0 | Field goal | 31–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/29 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 30 | 154 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Jamal Robertson | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/27 | 238 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Brian Westbrook | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.07