Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
44
Model margin
+4.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.047
- 43.9%Success rate43.4%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.099EPA / rush+0.019
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- 41.6%Third-down rate36.1%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.83Points / drive1.99
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/29 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 30 | 154 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Jamal Robertson | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/27 | 238 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Brian Westbrook | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.07