Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.043
- 39.7%Success rate40.7%
- -0.140EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.161
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- 31.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.19Points / drive1.42
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.087EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Brown | 11/14 | 119 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 12/29 | 83 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/32 | 204 | 4 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.54