Closing spread
IND -9
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.099
- 46.3%Success rate38.7%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.102
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- 42.2%Third-down rate30.8%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 2.34Points / drive1.15
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 13:11 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 11:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 10:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:00 | 13 | 68 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 2:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 0:55 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q2 10:51 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 5:23 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 3:22 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| IND | Q2 1:49 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| IND | Q3 10:34 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 3–17 |
| HOU | Q3 8:11 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 3–17 |
| IND | Q3 5:33 | 13 | 87 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q4 14:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–17 |
| IND | Q4 12:52 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q4 11:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–17 |
| IND | Q4 9:59 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q4 5:22 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 16–17 |
| IND | Q4 3:55 | 1 | 5 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| HOU | Q4 3:50 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–17 |
| IND | Q4 2:40 | 11 | 65 | Field goal | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/38 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 27 | 171 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 13/23 | 105 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 2 |
| David Carr | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.51