Closing spread
IND -3
Total
49
Model margin
+2.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.100
- 44.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.047EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- 39.9%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.96Points / drive2.34
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.073EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 23/30 | 181 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Quentin Griffin | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/26 | 377 | 5 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 4/5 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.85