Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
43
Model margin
+2.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play+0.047
- 45.9%Success rate43.4%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.064
- +0.001EPA / rush+0.019
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- 41.0%Third-down rate36.1%
- 74.0%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 2.11Points / drive1.99
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.077EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 14:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 13:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:18 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 8:33 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| GB | Q1 7:41 | 1 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 7:37 | 4 | 42 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 5:41 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| PHI | Q1 1:22 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 14–0 |
| GB | Q2 12:28 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 14–0 |
| PHI | Q2 9:32 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| GB | Q2 6:29 | 10 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q2 1:56 | 7 | 33 | End of half | 14–7 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q3 12:10 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 14–7 |
| GB | Q3 9:02 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q3 4:47 | 10 | 109 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| GB | Q4 14:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–14 |
| PHI | Q4 13:28 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 14–14 |
| GB | Q4 12:22 | 4 | 48 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q4 10:22 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 17–14 |
| GB | Q4 7:58 | 10 | 43 | Punt | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q4 2:21 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| GB | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| PHI | OT | 3 | -4 | Punt | 17–17 |
| GB | OT | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| PHI | OT | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/28 | 180 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 25 | 156 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/39 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 11 | 107 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+2.92