Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play+0.047
- 39.3%Success rate43.4%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.132EPA / rush+0.019
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- 35.8%Third-down rate36.1%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.35Points / drive1.99
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. PHI are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 9/14 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 10/22 | 100 | 0 | 3 |
| Koy Detmer | 7/14 | 88 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.37