Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.043
- 46.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 42.2%Third-down rate37.4%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 2.34Points / drive1.42
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 8:16 | 10 | 73 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 3:26 | 12 | 72 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| IND | Q2 12:44 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| NE | Q2 12:28 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| IND | Q2 8:06 | 7 | 20 | Safety | 0–15 |
| NE | Q2 4:08 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 0–15 |
| IND | Q2 2:53 | 5 | 25 | Turnover | 0–15 |
| NE | Q2 1:05 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 0–15 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–15 |
| NE | Q3 9:44 | 5 | 53 | Field goal | 7–18 |
| IND | Q3 7:20 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–18 |
| NE | Q3 6:17 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 7–21 |
| IND | Q3 1:32 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| NE | Q3 0:54 | 6 | 28 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| IND | Q4 13:28 | 14 | 50 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| NE | Q4 8:17 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–21 |
| IND | Q4 6:10 | 13 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| NE | Q4 2:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–21 |
| IND | Q4 2:01 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 14–21 |
| NE | Q4 1:41 | 3 | -1 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| IND | Q4 0:50 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 14–24 |
| NE | Q4 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/47 | 237 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 19 | 78 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/37 | 237 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 22 | 100 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Bethel Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.77