Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.043
- 46.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 42.2%Third-down rate37.4%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 2.34Points / drive1.42
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/47 | 237 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 19 | 78 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/37 | 237 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 22 | 100 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Bethel Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.77