Closing spread
NYJ -5.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.040
- 43.2%Success rate45.5%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.114EPA / rush+0.058
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- 40.8%Third-down rate42.9%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.40Points / drive1.86
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 18/27 | 248 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 24 | 70 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 20/27 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 29 | 196 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.90