Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play+0.072
- 43.5%Success rate44.4%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- 29.5%Third-down rate37.2%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.65Points / drive1.97
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.008EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 16/28 | 203 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3/9 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 9 | 125 | 13.9 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 26/36 | 330 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 119 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.47