Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 17 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:29 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 4:37 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:58 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q2 13:57 | 5 | 20 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 11:08 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q2 9:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 9:03 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q2 3:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 1:51 | 2 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| PIT | Q2 1:37 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 7–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 67 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q3 8:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 6:06 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q3 4:59 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LV | Q3 3:12 | 9 | 44 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q4 14:42 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| LV | Q4 13:12 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 13–21 |
| PIT | Q4 10:32 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–21 |
| LV | Q4 8:14 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| PIT | Q4 4:51 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 21–24 |
| LV | Q4 0:07 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 21–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 13/22 | 142 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 24 | 91 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 3 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.