Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 13/22 | 142 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 24 | 91 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 3 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.