Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
38
Model margin
+2.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.012EPA / play-0.173
- 41.5%Success rate35.8%
- +0.035EPA / dropback-0.181
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.159
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.9%
- 34.6%Third-down rate34.6%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.47Points / drive0.97
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.7%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed-0.054
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 9/14 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 16 | 100 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 21/31 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 5/13 | 42 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Gordon | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
6.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.85