Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Total
40
Model margin
+4.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play-0.059
- 35.8%Success rate43.2%
- -0.181EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.114
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- 34.6%Third-down rate40.8%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
- 0.97Points / drive1.40
- 3.7%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.054EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. CIN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 21/39 | 218 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Gordon | 19 | 22 | 1.2 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/38 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 22 | 67 | 3.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.99