Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Total
40
Model margin
+4.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play-0.059
- 35.8%Success rate43.2%
- -0.181EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.114
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- 34.6%Third-down rate40.8%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate53.2%
- 0.97Points / drive1.40
- 3.7%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.054EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–6 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:09 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 11:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 9:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 8:08 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 6:46 | 5 | 28 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 4:33 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 1:47 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q2 14:49 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q2 12:39 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 10:14 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q2 8:12 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 6:09 | 4 | 35 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q2 4:32 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 1:42 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q2 0:24 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Opp touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q3 12:01 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CIN | Q3 10:42 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q3 9:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CIN | Q3 8:07 | 7 | 14 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q3 5:11 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CIN | Q3 3:44 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| MIA | Q3 0:13 | 7 | 7 | Punt | 3–13 |
| CIN | Q4 12:07 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 3–13 |
| MIA | Q4 8:40 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 3–13 |
| CIN | Q4 5:58 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–13 |
| MIA | Q4 4:57 | 4 | 53 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q4 3:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q4 2:34 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| CIN | Q4 1:53 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 13–16 |
| MIA | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 21/39 | 218 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Gordon | 19 | 22 | 1.2 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/38 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 22 | 67 | 3.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.99